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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2026–Jan 17th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, East Purcell, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

A buried weak layer warrants caution as you gain elevation and the crust gets thinner.

Avoid being under steep, sunny slopes as the temperature rises.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
  • Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, there were a few large (size 2.5) solar triggered wind slabs from steep south-facing alpine terrain north of Elkford. Near Invermere, there were also several natural wet loose avalanches, up to size 2. From steep solar aspects.

On Tuesday, there was a widespread avalanche cycle with many small and large avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

A crust extends up to around treeline. High alpine and north facing treeline areas may still be crust free.

Around 40 to 60 cm of snow overlies a persistent weak layer of surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes.

A deep persistent weak layer consisting of a thick melt-freeze crust, with weak faceted snow and/or depth hoar, can be found near the ground in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Clear skies. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Saturday
Sunny. 30 to 40 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Above freezing layer (AFL) in the alpine.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. 1 cm of snow. 10 to 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Monday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Wind slabs are isolated, but may remain reactive.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.