Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2026–Jan 19th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis, Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

Watch for a temperature inversion on Saturday with warmer air at higher elevations. Strong solar radiation and the warm temperatures in the Alpine may cause the snowpack to weaken on solar aspects so keep an eye on the thermometer as you travel.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

One new cornice collapse was noted in the Burstall pass area triggering a sz 2 windslabs on the underlying NE aspect slope.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar has been growing over the past few days with the cooler nights. Otherwise not much is changing and backcountry users can expect a thin melt freeze crust was being encountered on all aspects up to 2300m and likely higher and thicker on more solar aspects. Windslabs are common at treeline and above from the strong winds over this past week with some areas stripped down to rock. A surface hoar layer is also being found down 50cm up to 2100m that has been producing results in the hard range.

The November crust is deeply buried in the snowpack down 120-200cm. Field tests on this layer over the past few days have produced no results from a deep tap test on this layer. There is still some concern for triggering this layer from thin snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Mainly sunny on Saturday with a high -1 in the alpine and winds into the moderate range out of the NE. An inversion is forecast for Saturday with an above freezing layer in the alpine. Check the weather stations at treeline before you head out.

https://hpfx.collab.science.gc.ca/~fsg006/productviewer/ab/table/AB_Rockies_Forecast.html

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid steep terrain, including convex rolls, or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.