Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2026–Jan 19th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia, Esplanade, North Selkirk, Dogtooth, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk.

Rugged travel conditions are the most readily found hazard.

Avalanche danger exists up high where cornices can trigger slabs in dry snow or through a thin crust.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been a mixed bag including:

One notable outlier was an explosive-triggered Size 3.5 avalanche that stepped down to a deep persistent slab in the west Purcells. While not representative of widespread conditions, it highlights that large avalanches remain possible with large loads like cornices, in complex alpine terrain.
A number of cornice falls triggered large wind slabs, size 2 to 2.5, in extreme terrain in the high alpine

Snowpack Summary

A widespread melt-freeze crust extends to the alpine. Across the alpine, snow remains dry and wind affected, except on southerly aspects where solar input has had more influence. Cornices loom large.

A surface hoar layer from in early January is buried around 1 m deep. The mid-December crust is now buried around 1.5 m deep, and is present up to 2300 m. Deep in the snowpack near the ground in the West Purcells a crust/facet layer can be found. Triggering these layers is unlikely under current conditions, and would require a large load like a cornice fall.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Clear skies. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Monday
Sunny. 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Tuesday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for slabs before you commit to it.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.