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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2023–Feb 28th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Fresh snow will continue to accumulate today, building new storm slabs and hiding old wind loaded features. Plan your trip with sheltered terrain in mind.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Human triggered wind slabs were reported to size 1 on Sunday, along with consistent sluffing of loose snow from steep terrain features.

Backcountry users may see evidence of a small natural wind slab avalanche cycle at higher elevations from recent winds and fresh snow.

Please post your field observations and photos on the Mountain Information Network. The information is beneficial to forecasters and fellow backcountry users.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of storm snow sits on wind affected surfaces at all elevations. Deeper deposits may be found in north and east facing terrain features due to southwest winds.

The mid-snowpack is generally well settled, with a thick melt freeze crust and no current layers of concern.

The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary crystals and crusts near the ground. These facets are slowly gaining strength and have not produced recent avalanche activity. We continue to track the layer and watch for any signs that it could wake up and produce very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with flurries, 2-4 cm. Light to moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy with light snowfall, 5-10 cm favoring Fernie and southern terrain. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels around 500 m. Alpine high of -6 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Moderate westerly winds. Alpine high of -5 °C. Freezing levels 700 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with around 5 cm overnight and 10 cm over the day. Strong southwest winds. Alpine highs of -6°C, freezing levels around 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.