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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2023–Mar 2nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch.

New storm slabs may become increasingly reactive during the day.Be particularly cautious in wind-loaded areas and continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a few skier-controlled storm slabs were reported up to size 1, and previous old natural avalanche activity was seen from last weekend's storm.

On Monday, several natural storm slab and cornice failures were reported up to size 2. The cornice fall triggered a slab up to 50 cm deep from the slope below to size 2. Additionally, numerous explosive-controlled wind slab avalanches and cornices were reported up to size 2.

Looking forward to Thursday, natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered storm slabs are likely, especially in wind-loaded areas. Storm slab reactivity is expected to persist for longer than is typical due to the weak surface they are sitting on.

For a deeper dive into conditions leading up to last weekend's storm, check out this awesome South Coast Conditions Report posted by Zenith Guides.

Snowpack Summary

20 + cm of new snow may hit the region by Thursday afternoon. This will add to the 30-60 cm that accumulated over the past 5 days. In some areas, this new snow has bonded poorly to the underlying surface consisting of stiff wind slabs and facets formed by last week's wind and cold temperatures.

Deeper in the snowpack 60-180 cm down exists two crusts with facets sitting above them. They can be found in alpine and treeline elevation bands. These crust/facet layers have been responsible for a few large avalanches in the past 2 weeks in the Brandywine and Pemberton Icefield areas.

The remainder of the mid and lower snowpack is well-settled, strong, and consolidated.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

New snow 10-20 cm. Alpine temperatures -10°C. Ridge wind southwest 50 km/h. Freezing level valley bottom.

Thursday

Snow up to 10 cm. Alpine temperatures -8 °C. Southwest wind 40 to 65 km/h. Freezing level 700 m.

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and a trace of snow. Ridgetop wind 25 to 50 km/h from the southwest. Alpine temperatures -5°C. Freezing level 700 m.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures near -5 °C. Ridge wind northeast 15 km/h. Freezing level 1100 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.