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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2025–Feb 22nd, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Choose mellow terrain or indoor activities while the snowpack adjusts to rapid change.

Heavy snow, rain and extreme wind are increasing avalanche danger and decreasing comfort.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several small (up to size 1) natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches were reported in the recent storm snow.

Widespread natural avalanche activity should be expected heading into the weekend as a series of storms brings heavy snowfall and rain.

Snowpack Summary

At higher elevations, new snow continues to pile up over old wind-affected snow, facets, surface hoar, and/or a melt-freeze crust. The new snow doesn't seem to be sticking well to the old surface. In exposed terrain, the wind has redistributed the storm snow into fresh wind slabs on leeward slopes.

On Saturday, the rain will be reaching higher, up to mountaintops in some places, soaking surfaces that were previously dry.

A widespread crust, sometimes accompanied by a thin layer of weak facets, was buried 30-70 cm beneath predominantly low-density snow before the storm.

The mid and lower snowpack contains no other layers of concern.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with moderate rain below 1500 m, 5 to 15 cm of snow above. 60 to 75 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high 1 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with heavy rain below 1000 m, 20 to 40 cm of snow above. Possibly much more on the west side of the Island. 70 to 100 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high 2 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with moderate rain below 1500 m, 10 to 20 cm above. Possibly much more on the west side of the Island. 30 to 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with light to moderate rain below 1200 m. 5 to 15 cm of snow above. Possibly much more on the west side and south end of the Island. 50 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind in the morning, getting lighter and shifting to southeast through the day. Freezing level around 1300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.