Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2025–Jan 29th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Recent warm temperatures raised freezing levels to around 2800m. With a cooling trend forecasted for the coming week, expect a widespread melt-freeze crust to form on the snowpack surface, leading to challenging skiing conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous solar triggered Loose Wet avalanches, initiating in steep south to west facing features in the alpine, were observed in the Icefields area on Jan 27. Several of these triggered slabs that ran on a deeper crust and were up to size 2.

Two size two Deep Persistent Slab avalanches, in previously uncontrolled alpine terrain, were triggered by explosives at Marmot Basin on Jan 26.

Snowpack Summary

A variety of surface conditions exist depending on location, including melt freeze crusts, sun crusts, hard wind slabs, and soft faceted snow. These overlie a generally weak and faceted mid-pack. At the bottom of the snowpack are the early season crusts, which are faceting and surrounded by large depth hoar. The snowpack is 70-130 cm in depth at tree line, and thins quickly below.

Weather Summary

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy.

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: High -11 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Thursday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.

Precipitation: Trace.

Alpine temperature: Low -13 °C, High -10 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 15-25 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Limit exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present in the snowpack.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.