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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2024–Mar 21st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Time to switch your avalanche mindset back to winter. A cold front from the NE brings heavy upslope snowfall which will fall over a slippery crust.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered loose wet avalanches were reported on sunny aspects at all elevations on Monday. A naturally triggered size 2 wet slab on an east aspect below treeline and a size 2 cornice failure were also reported.

By Tuesday, natural activity had slowed down with only a few size 1 loose wet reported.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 25 cm of cold new snow falls over predominantly crusty surfaces. Below 1500 m, the new snow (or rain) may fall on an already moist upper snowpack.

A widespread, hard crust down 80-200 cm with weak facets above continues to be the primary layer of concern for human triggering of very large persistent slab avalanches.

Weather Summary

A cold front from the northeast stalls over the Divide, bringing heavy upslope snowfall to the region on Thursday.

Wednesday night

Cloud with isolated flurries bringing a trace of snow. 10 to 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Thursday

10 to 25 cm of snow, with rain below 1300 m west of Elkford and in the Lizard and Flathead areas. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Friday

5 to 10 cm of snow overnight then cloudy. 10 to 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 5 cm. 20 to 30 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.