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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2024–Feb 29th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

High avalanche hazard, avoid all avalanche terrain.

50cm of new snow will over load a fragile snowpack that is already primed for human triggering.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity is expected to peak Wednesday night, with widespread size 3 and larger avalanches. Natural avalanches will be likely on Thursday, and human triggered very likely.

On Tuesday a group triggered a size 3 avalanche from ridge top at tree line in the camp west area failing on the Feb 3rd crust (see photos). Numerous other human triggered avalanches have been report throughout the region on this layer.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow for this week will total around 120 cm by the end of Thursday. The storm will end warm and bring some rain to below treeline. Moderate to strong southerly winds have loaded lee features.

The Feb 3rd crust in under the storm snow, and will be the main failure plane of concern during this period of heavy loading.

The mid to lower snowpack is well settled, except in isolated areas of the alpine where an unusually thin & faceted snowpack exists.

Weather Summary

The storm peaks tonight, moving out Thurs, as freezing levels fall and convective flurries forecast.

Tonight: Flurries, 15 cm, mod/strong SW winds, low -5°C, snow lvl 900m

Thurs: Snow, 10 cm, mod SW winds, High -8°C, Snow lvl valley bottom.

Fri: Isolated flurries, 5 cm, light/mod S winds, High -9°C

Sat: Cloudy, light E winds, High -9°C

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Very large avalanches have been running full path.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.