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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2024–Mar 13th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

North Rockies, Sugarbowl, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Natural avalanche activity could spike on slopes facing the sun.

Rider and remote triggering of large avalanches are an ongoing concern. Choose conservative, low consequence terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche reports by 4pm Tuesday.

Check out this great MIN describing conditions near Hasler.

A few size 1 and 1.5 rider triggered persistent slab avalanches have been reported in the last couple days as well as a few size 2 natural wind slabs. We expect wind and persistent slabs to be rider triggerable. Avoid solar slopes when the sun is out.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is being redistributed by ongoing southerly winds, leaving widespread wind-affected surfaces in exposed terrain. Numerous sun crusts exist on steep south facing slopes. The snow surface will likely become moist at low elevations.

A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 50 to 110 cm deep. This crust has a layer of facets above it in many areas.

The eastern portion of this region is much shallower with a highly variable and wind-affected snowpack.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Clear periods with isolated flurries. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10°C. Freezing levels valley bottom.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 15 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures near -8°C. Freezing level rising to 1400 m.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. 10 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures near -3°C. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Friday

Sunny. 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures near 0°C. Freezing level rising to 2500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.