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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2024–Jan 17th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Clearwater, Jordan, Shuswap, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, North Okanagan, Whatshan.

Reactive storm slabs may build through the day and dry loose power sluffing seen in steep terrain features.

Persistent slabs are best managed through conservative terrain selection.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a skier triggered storm slab was reported size 1 on an east aspect at 2300 m. Explosive control saw a few slab avalanches up to size 2.5 from easterly-facing terrain above 2300 m. Sluffing was seen on steep terrain features at all elevations.

Fresh storm slabs will build with the new snow on Wednesday. They will likely be reactive if a slab forms, however; dry loose power sluffing may be the name of the game in most places sheltered from the wind.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will bury a variety of snow surfaces including unconsolidated faceted snow, surface hoar and firm wind-pressed snow in open terrain at treeline and above. Dry loose sluffing from steep terrain features is likely.

Down 50 -70 cm, a crust, facet and or surface hoar layer exists. This may become a problem once the snow above starts to stiffen and form a slab.

100+ cm down another surface hoar layer exists that was buried in early December. This seems to be of most concern above 2000 m where a robust crust doesn't exist above it.

Weak basal facets are likely to be found on the ground in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

New snow 10-20 cm. Ridgetop wind 15-25 km/h from the west. Treeline temperatures near -13 C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 5-15 cm of snow. Ridgetop wind 20 km/h from the southeast and treeline temperatures near -12 C.

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop wind 10-20 km/h from the southeast. Treeline temperature -10 C.

Friday

New snow 5-10 cm. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest. Treeline temperatures near -3 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.