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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2024–Feb 11th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

New snow and rain will bring the first significant change to the snowpack in several days.

Choose mellow terrain, and give the new snow time to bond to the old surface.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in this region.

We expect that with the incoming snow and rain, human-triggered avalanches will be likely.

If you do go into the backcountry, please consider submitting a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate precipitation with fluctuating freezing levels could leave us with up to 30 cm of new snow in the alpine. Moderate to strong southwest wind will likely be forming, deeper more reactive slabs on north and east facing terrain. At treeline, the snow will turn to rain through the day, potentially forming a loose wet avalanche problem.

Underneath the new snow, around 5 cm of settling or wet snow sits on a thick, hard, melt-freeze crust that is present up to mountain tops in most areas.

Below treeline, most areas are below the threshold for forming avalanches.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy. 10-15 cm of snow above 750 m. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, shifting to south through the night. Treeline low around -2 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy. Moderate rain. 5-15 cm of snow above 1250 m. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 1 °C.

Monday

Sunny. Light snow/rain overnight. Strong northwest ridgetop wind easing off through the day. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level dropping to 500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.