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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2024–Jan 30th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Lizard-Flathead, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, Ymir, Flathead, Crawford, Moyie, St. Mary, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla.

A rain-soaked snowpack will continue to create dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred in the past few days as rain impacted the snowpack. Numerous large (size 2-3) persistent slab, wet slab, and wet loose avalanches were reported on Sunday.

If poor riding quality doesn't deter you on Tuesday, keep in mind that human-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, large natural avalanches have the potential to entrain significant mass and run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has created a moist or wet upper snowpack at all elevations. A weak surface crust may have formed overnight at upper elevations.

The snowpack has two buried weak layers of concern:

  • A layer of facets and surface hoar buried 30 to 60 cm deep, covered by a thin crust at lower elevations but remaining active higher up.

  • A crust and facet combo from the new year down 80 to 100 cm. This layer seems to be becoming active now that it has a significant load over it.

Currently, the mid and lower snowpack is generally well-bonded, featuring a thick crust near its base.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Partially cloudy with periods of light rain. Alpine wind southwest 20 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C, freezing level 3000 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with sunny breaks, rainfall up to 5 mm. Alpine wind south 10 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 4 °C, freezing level 2500 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated showers. Alpine wind south 25 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 2 °C, freezing level 2500 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, up to 5 mm accumulation. Alpine wind south 20 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.