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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2024–Jan 23rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Exercise extra caution on south through west facing slopes as a buried crust may enhance the reactivity and propagation of recently formed slabs.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has tapered off. Last week there were several human triggered avalanches up to size 2, all on sun affected aspects failing on the sun crust buried in early January.

Snowpack Summary

30cms of recent storm snow overlies variable wind slabs/wind effect in open terrain, and settling facetted snow in sheltered areas below tree-line.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 50cm and most prominent at tree-line has been the failure plane for recent human triggered avalanches.

Below 2100m there is decomposing crust down 75cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 110cm and is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Continued small inputs of new snow coupled with winds through the week will maintain conditions for possible slab avalanche formation.

Tues: Flurries - 4cm, light SW wind, high -4°C, low -7°C, freezing level (FZL) 1600m

Wed: Isolated flurries - trace of new snow, moderate SW wind, high -5°C, low -8°C, FZL 1400m

Thurs: Flurries - 6cm, moderate SW wind, high -6°C, low -9°C, FZL 1100m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.