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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2024–Jan 24th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

***Updated - 6:18 am PST***

Be prepared to back off slopes and choose more conservative terrain as storm snow accumulates throughout the day.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wet loose avalanches up to size 2 were observed on the weekend.

If you head into the backcountry, please consider submitting a MIN

Snowpack Summary

Check out this MIN describing conditions and avalanche observations.

Rain has left the snow surface wet at lower elevations and a mix of wet snow and hard melt-freeze crust around treeline. Dry snow may be found in the alpine, which has likely been redistributed by strong southerly wind.

The remainder of the snowpack is strong with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where rain has prevailed for much of the winter.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with 5 mm of mixed precipitation expected, southeast ridgetop wind 15 to 35 km/h, treeline temperature -2°C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with up to 40 mm of mixed precipitation expected, south ridgetop wind 25 to 40 km/h, freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with up to 10 mm of mixed precipitation expected, southeast ridgetop wind 25 to 40 km/h, freezing level around 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with up to 20 mm of mixed precipitation expected, southeast ridgetop wind 30 to 50 km/h, freezing level around 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.