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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2024–Jan 23rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast, Powell River, Tantalus, North Shore, Sky Pilot, Tetrahedron.

Heavy rain and snow just keeps coming, watch for rapidly changing conditions and signs of instability.

If you find accumulations greater than 30 cm, consider the danger to be HIGH.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural wet avalanche cycle continues with heavy loading from snow, rain and wind. As the freezing levels rise and fall over the course of the day, watch for areas where there is a switch between snow and rain occurring.

Check out this MIN from the Skypilot area that shows the widespread activity.

Snowpack Summary

Rain and warm temperatures have impacted the snowpack to mountain top, creating wet and heavy snow. Fluctuating freezing levels may have created melt-freeze crusts within the new snow.

A crust with softer snow overlying it exists down 40 to 60 cm. This soft snow will rapidly shrink and become denser as it gets drenched with rain. The remainder of the mid and lower snowpack is generally settled and well-bonded.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 15 to 30 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest 20 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 15 to 30 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest 25 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 10 to 20 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind south 40 to 60 km/h. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 5 to 15 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind south 30 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.