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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2020–Jan 6th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Another wave of snow and wind late this afternoon will once again overload an already stressed snowpack. If you choose to tip-toe out skiing this morning, make sure you have an exit route that avoids exposure to any overhead hazard.

Weather Forecast

An active cold front will bring increasing winds and snowfall later this afternoon.

Today: Afternoon snowfall (6 cm). Treeline High -8 C. Ridge wind Mod-Extreme SW. Freezing level 800 m.

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries (4 cm). Treeline temps: Low -14 C. Ridge wind Mod-extreme SW. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme South winds have build reactive slabs well down into the slope in lee terrain. Several weaknesses can be found within the 65-90cm of storm snow above the persistent Dec 27th layer. The mid and lower snowpack has been gaining strength, but a few deep avalanches recently indicate early season weaknesses may be getting overloaded.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches up to size 3.5 in the highway corridor were triggered both naturally and by artillery yesterday.

Confidence

Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.