Avalanche Forecast

Tuesday night: Cloudy, 3-8 cm of snow, light west winds, alpine temperature -10 C.

Wednesday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, light southwest winds, gusting at ridge-top, alpine high temperature -6 C.

Thursday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow overnight and into the morning, light west winds, alpine high temperature -4 C.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries, light variable winds, alpine high temperature -4 C. 

New snow, wind, and warming temperatures are expected to build a reactive storm slab problem prone to human-triggering where more than 25 cm accumulates. These conditions may also bring cornices to their breaking point.

During the weekend storm, numerous size 2-3.5 avalanches released naturally in the storm snow. These avalanches primarily occurred on leeward aspects at treeline and alpine elevations. Below tree line, large wet loose avalanches were releasing naturally on Friday and into Saturday during the warm temperatures.

With continuous stormy weather over the past week, there have been a handful of notable natural avalanches breaking on more deeply buried weak layers. These were very large (size 3-4) avalanches releasing on slopes above 2200 m. Although the likelihood is decreasing in the aftermath of the storm, these avalanches are a reminder that a deeper instability may linger in shallow, rocky, alpine start zones where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin. Storm slab avalanches or cornice fall may have the potential to step-down to these layers. 

The forecast storm is expected to bring 25+ cm to favored areas such as the Monashees. Gusty winds are forecast for upper elevations as well as a gradual warming trend throughout the storm, which has the potential to speed up slab formation. 

There have been substantial changes to the snowpack over the past few days from wind, snow, and warming. 30-70+ cm fell during the weekend storm at upper elevations (above 1900 m) with the higher amounts in the eastern half of the region. Strong winds originating from the southwest and shifting to the northwest created a tricky loading pattern above tree line and increased concern for cornice triggers. During a warming event Saturday night, rain saturated snow surfaces up to around 1900 m that have since formed a crust.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong. Although isolated, there are two deeper layers that may still persist. A layer surface hoar currently buried 100 to 180 cm deep from late December and a facet/crust layer from November near the ground. 

• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.
• The best and safest riding will be on slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties.
• Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.