Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2020–Jan 10th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Lots of low density new snow in the forecast for Friday. Expect avalanche danger to increase over the day as depths increase and slabs begin to form. Increasing load on a buried weak layer makes conservative terrain selection especially important at treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 10-15 cm of new snow. Moderate south winds.

Friday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing approximately 20 cm of low density new snow and new snow totals to 25-35 cm by end of day. Light southeast or southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -10.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -15.

Sunday: Sunny. Moderate northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -28.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from the region are limited, however a widespread avalanche cycle is likely to have occurred throughout the southern part of the region on Friday and Saturday, when more than 40 cm of snow fell. 

A report from Tuesday includes an observation of a large, audible natural avalanche in the Howson range. Details on the event are limited, but the natural trigger suggests touchy conditions still exist in parts of the region.

Before the last storm, reports of persistent slab avalanches associated with buried surface hoar were trickling in, from Ashman, Houston Telkwas, and the Howsons. They included natural and artificially triggered avalanches ranging in size from 1.5-3, and have occurred on all aspects, mainly at treeline. Loading from recent (and forecast) snowfall has (and will) increase the size and consequences of avalanches on these layers.

Looking forward, another round of snowfall through Friday is expected to build a widespread new storm slab problem to manage over the coming days.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate in the region by the end of the day on Friday. The new snow will mainly bury wind-affected surfaces at alpine and upper treeline elevations. It may cover a new layer of surface hoar at sheltered lower elevations or a thin sun crust on steeper south-facing slopes.

Below the new snow interface, 40-60 cm of recent, wind-affected storm snow is expected to be forming a good bond with the interface below it.

A concerning pair of surface hoar layers are currently buried about 50-100 cm below the surface in sheltered areas around treeline. Reports of avalanche activity on these layers before the last storm suggest they may be active. Loading from forecast snowfall will increase this potential.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.