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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 19th, 2026–Mar 20th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, East Purcell, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Avoid avalanche terrain and exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

Heavy rain and high freezing levels will continue to create very dangerous conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about how persistent slabs will react to the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain about forecast rain amounts.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, evidence of very large storm slab avalanches (up to size 3) were reported to have occurred naturally on all aspects in the East Purcells. Many features have run full path (up to size 4).

On Wednesday, two very large persistent slabs (size 2.5) were reported on north to north-east aspects at treeline, failing to a depth of 60 cm. near Toby Creek.

Looking ahead, natural avalanches are expected, particularly in areas where avalanche paths have not yet released.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels and rain are continuing to soak the upper snowpack up to 2400 m of elevation.

A thick crust can be found on all aspects and is down 30 to 50 cm. The thickness of the crust (from 1 to 10 cm) depends on elevation.

Below this, two layers of concern vary in depth throughout the region. They are generally close together and in the top 100 to 120 cm of the snowpack.

In shallow snowpack areas, depth hoar (large facets) can be found near the bottom of the snowpack.

The lower snowpack is soaked at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 2600 m.

Friday
Cloudy. 20 to 30 mm of rain at treeline. 80 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2°C. Freezing level 2600 m.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 3 mm of rain or snow at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 3 cm of snow at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain; avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Cornice failures could trigger large and destructive avalanches.
  • Wet avalanche activity may step down to deeply buried persistent weak layers at lower elevations.
  • Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.