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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Tumbler.

New snow with wind is on repeat lately with another pulse of new snow in the forecast. Approach wind-loaded features like ridges and ribs with caution and keep an eye out for shooting cracks as you transition into open terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported in the area. Please continue to submit your observations to the MIN.

Looking forward, wind slabs formed by the recent snow and variable winds are becoming stubborn and may catch riders off guard.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 5 to 10 cm of new snow will be coming in with moderate to strong southwest winds that will build wind slabs at alpine and treeline elevations.

These new wind slabs add to the upper snowpack that is settling and bonding over previous surfaces of old wind slabs found at upper elevations and soft snow in sheltered locations. A melt-freeze crust can be found below 1000 m formed when temperatures dipped following a warm spell.

The mid-pack is consolidated but variable in depth depending on aspect and elevation.

The lower snowpack is composed of large and weak facets formed in November and most likely triggerable in steep, rocky alpine terrain.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Mainly cloudy clearing briefly overnight, 50 to 60 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures around -8 °C.

Thursday

Increasing cloud, 5 to 10 cm new snow, 40 to 50 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures around -7 °C

Friday

Increasing clouds, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, 40 to 50 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -10 °C

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries with 2 to 5 cm of new snow, 40 to 50 km/h winds, treeline temperatures -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.