Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2026–Jan 15th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday, but remain cautious of steep sun exposed slopes, and reactive wind slabs at tree line and above.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

Wind slabs and loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were produced from avalanche control along the Icefields Parkway on Tuesday.

A size 3.5 deep persistent slab triggered by a large cornice failure was observed on Saturday in the icefields area, and a size 2 deep persistent slab was observed from the ski hill in the adjacent backcountry on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is undergoing a significant transition. Strong winds have created reactive wind slabs at ridgetop, while at tree line and below, the snowpack is warming significantly, increasing the likelihood of loose wet avalanches in the region. The basal facet deep persistent problem remains a concern, particularly in thin snowpack areas, or under large triggers like cornice falls.

Weather Summary

Thursday

Sunny

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: High -6 °C.

Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 55 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Friday

Sunny

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -4 °C.

Ridge wind light to 15 km/h.

Freezing level: 2700 metres.

Saturday

Sunny

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: Low -4 °C, High -1 °C.

Light ridge wind.

Freezing level: 3100 metres.

Strong alpine temperature inversion.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.