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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2023–Dec 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Columbia, Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Quesnel, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Central Selkirk.

Choose mellow slopes, and watch for signs of instability and a buried layer of weak surface hoar.

Riders continue to be surprised by large avalanches sliding on this layer.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several skier-triggered persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported over the week, including one on Thursday, northwest of Golden. They have mostly occurred in treeline terrain, but have been reported as low as 1950 m. They failed on weak layers comprised of surface hoar and or facets 40-70 cm below the snow surface. Check out this MIN from the adjacent region. It paints a clear picture.

Human-triggered persistent slabs remain the primary concern.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of new snow has buried old wind-affected snow, sun crusts on steep south aspects and surface hoar. Approximately 25 to 40 cm down exists a rain crust that has been observed to ridgeline in most areas.

A concerning layer of surface hoar is now buried 50-80 cm deep. This layer has recently been reactive to human triggering above 1900 m.

The lower snowpack is a mix of rounded and faceted grains. A hard crust may be found near the ground.

Treeline snowpack depths are variable and generally range between 100 to 150 cm. Snowpack tapers rapidly as you move lower in elevation.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -4°C. Freezing level around 1000 m. Possible weak alpine temperature inversion.

Saturday

Cloudy. 2-5 cm of snow expected. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -3°C. Freezing level around 1000 m, possibly rising as high as 1500 m in the north end of the forecast area.

Sunday

Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -6°C. Possible weak alpine temperature inversion.

Monday

Mostly cloudy. Possible trace of snow expected. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -3 °C. Possible alpine temperature inversion.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be especially cautious near rock outcroppings, on steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.