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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2023–Dec 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Buried surface hoar at tree line and in the alpine remains susceptible to human triggering where it exists and hasn't already failed.

Good riding can be found in conservative terrain above tree line.

Lower elevation and ski-outs are crusty with frozen chunder, travel with caution.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Reports of rider-triggered wind slabs in wind-prone areas in the Asulkan Valley. A large powder cloud was observed below Forever Young during a strong wind event on Saturday afternoon.

On Friday a group remotely triggered a size 2 avalanche in a steep rocky roll from 20m away along the ridge near Balu Pass.

Snowpack Summary

25-45cm of recent snow sits on top of a rain crust up to ~2200m.

Surface hoar is buried down 60-80cm and continues to give 'sudden' results in snowpack tests and whumpfs in untraveled terrain.

The base of the snowpack is facetted at upper elevations.

The height of snow at treeline is ~130cm, which is below average for this time of year, watch out for early-season hazards.

Weather Summary

5cm is forecasted to fall overnight on Sunday. Monday will be cloudy with sunny periods as a ridge of high pressure settles in.

Ridgetop winds will be light from the North to West with an alpine high of -5. There is a chance of a temperature inversion with cooler temps in the valley bottom.

There is a warming trend for the week, with a small amount of snow forecasted for Thursday.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.