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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 9th, 2023–Dec 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Incoming snow will build fresh avalanche problems and increase the potential of triggering the persistent weak layer.

With plenty of early season obstacles still exposed in runouts, a ride in any avalanche would be a violent affair. Choose conservative terrain and enter your line with caution.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred Tuesday/Wednesday with heavy snowfall, turning to rain at lower elevations. Avalanches were propagating widely and running well into runouts.

Conditions at upper elevations remain prime for human triggered avalanches. There was a report of a remotely triggered size 2 avalanche at Balu pass on Friday. And some of our near neighbours are reporting being able to remotely trigger size 2 avalanches from up to 80m away!

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of incoming snow will give totals of 15-30cm on top of the recent rain crust which exists up to about 2200m.

A weak layer of large surface hoar crystals persists down 60-70cm. This continues to give sudden results in snowpack tests and produce whumfing in untraveled terrain.

The base of the snowpack is made up of facets at upper elevations.

Height of snow at treeline is about 130 cms which is below average for this time of year. Watch out for early-season hazards!

Weather Summary

An incoming weather system has largely petered out over the Coast ranges, but will give our area snowfall and strong mountaintop winds overnight and into Sunday morning.

Tonight: Snow (5-10cm). Strong Southwest ridgetop winds. Alpine low of -9°C.

Sunday: Isolated flurries (~5 cm). Moderate SW wind. High -5°C.

Monday: Sunny periods. Light wind. Low -8°C, High -5°C.

Tuesday: Sunny periods. Low -8°C, High -5°C.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.