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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2024–Apr 1st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Avoid large sun exposed slopes, the sunshine and warmth will initiated a natural loose avalanche cycle.

Scroll down to see a photo of a solar triggered near miss on Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday a field team witnessed a solar triggered size 2.5 loose avalanche on Ursus minor that narrowly missed sweeping the second member of a party of 2 over cliffs whilst they were ascending on the slope beside it (see photo).

Also on Sunday a size 2 slab avalanche was observed on a north aspect above the highway, expected to be triggered by cornice failure.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of recent snow is well settled and remains dry on northerly aspects sitting over a thick crust below 1700m. A temperature/sun crust forms a widespread firm surface at low elevations and extends into the alpine on solar facing terrain.

The Feb 3rd weak layer is persisting down 80-140 cm deep. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Another dry and warm spell over the next two days will initiate another loose wet avalanche cycle as freezing levels (FZL) rise into the alpine. On Wednesday temps fall as the next storm arrives.

Mon: Sun/Cloud, alpine high 1°C, moderate SW winds, FZL 2400m.

Tues: Sun/Cloud alpine high 5°C, moderate SW winds gusting 75km/hr, FZL 2800m.

Wed: Cloudy, rain then snow up to 15cm, low -7°C moderate SW winds, FZL 2000m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.