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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2021–Feb 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

If you can't identify avalanche terrain do not enter the backcountry. If you can, stick to simple terrain. 15 to 25 cm of new snow rests on a persistent weak layer which is unusual for these mountains. Strong northwest wind Tuesday may initiate a natural avalanche cycle.  

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Windy Tuesday, bluebird Wednesday & then another storm approaches Thursday.

MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level lowering to around 400 m, light northwest wind, trace of snow possible. 

TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to 1000 m, strong northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 500 m rising to 800 m in the afternoon, light northerly wind, no significant precipitation expected.  

THURSDAY: Scattered clouds at dawn building to overcast in the afternoon, freezing level rising to about 1500 m in the afternoon, strong to extreme southerly wind expected Thursday afternoon, no snow anticipated during the day. 20 to 35 mm of precipitation Thursday night with a freezing level around 700 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Early reports from Monday show that the 15 to 25 cm of storm snow is not bonding well to the old weak surface, and the warmer temperatures have made avalanches quite sensitive to triggering.There are some tremendous visuals in this MIN report. Avalanche are expected to be sensitive to human triggering Tuesday as well.

Snowpack Summary

As of Monday afternoon the storm has produced 15 to 23 cm, snowfall is expected to tapper this afternoon.

Click here to check out North Shore Rescue's snowpack update from February 12. It's an excellent snapshot of conditions on the North Shore in advance of the current storm pattern.

Beneath our storm snow there is a rather unusual mix of facets, thin breakable crust and isolated pockets of surface hoar. There is then 30-40 cm of gradually faceting snow, and then a wide spread and supportive crust underneath. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.