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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 4th, 2021–Apr 5th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Minimize exposure to large looming cornices weakening in the sun on Monday. The new snow will be prone to point releases on south facing slopes and wind slabs may be found in immediate lees of exposed alpine terrain features.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Clear. Light to moderate northwest wind. Alpine temperature -8. Freezing level valley bottom.

Monday: Sunny. Light to moderate west wind. Alpine high temperatures around -2. Freezing level 1900 m.

Tuesday: Cloud increasing. Wind increasing to moderate to strong southwest. Alpine high temperatures around -2. Freezing level 1900 m.

Wednesday: 10-20 cm new snow. Strong southwest wind easing to light. Alpine temperature around -10. Freezing level 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

Small (size 1) loose dry avalanches on steep solar aspects and small loose wet at elevations with above-freezing temperatures can be expected on the new snow on Monday. Isolated wind slabs may also be triggerable by riders.

No new avalanches were reported in the region over the past couple of days, but reports from the neighboring North Columbias on Wednesday included small (size 1) natural and skier triggered loose wet and slab avalanches on south aspects, running on a recent crust layer. One recent natural size 2 cornice failure was also noted.

A couple of avalanche involvements were reported on Monday. We really appreciate this MIN report of a size 1.5 skier triggered storm slab on a northeast aspect around treeline. Thankfully no one was injured. 

We regret to report a fatality on Eureka Peak, east of Williams Lake on March 29. A human-triggered cornice failure resulted in a size 2.5 slab avalanche. It is important to remember to stay well back from ridgetops that might be corniced and to avoid slopes with overhead cornice exposure especially under the current conditions where recent rapid growth has made them large and fragile.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of recent snow may have seen some wind effect in immediate less of exposed alpine features. Reports indicate it is bonding well to underlying surfaces which include wind affected snow in the alpine or crust on solar aspects and below 1900 m. Below this elevation and on solar aspects the new snow dusts crusty surfaces down to 1500 m. Below 1500 m, the moist snowpack is quickly diminishing.

Recent warm weather is expected to have helped old persistent weak layers heal, including a few crusts buried over the last month as well as a facet layer 150 cm deep from the mid-February cold snap.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
  • Watch for signs of slab formation throughout the day.
  • Rocks will heat up with daytime warming and may become trigger points for loose wet avalanches
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.