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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 3rd, 2021–Apr 4th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Winter is still hanging on up there, with a fresh hit of snow arriving overnight. The new snow may be reactive in wind loaded features or where it sits over a crust. Check out our latest forecaster blog on managing these not-quite-yet-spring conditions. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Highest snowfall amounts will be on southwest facing slopes in the northern part of the region. Below the freezing level, precipitation will fall as rain.

Saturday night: 5-20 cm new snow. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Alpine temperatures around -6. Freezing levels 1000 m.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with scattered flurries. Light northwest wind. Alpine high temperatures around -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

Monday: Sunny. Light to moderate west wind. Alpine high temperatures around -2. Freezing level 1900 m.

Tuesday: Cloud increasing. Wind increasing to moderate to strong southwest. Alpine high temperatures around -2. Freezing level 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the region over the past couple of days, but reports from the neighboring North Columbias on Wednesday included small (size 1) natural and skier triggered loose wet and slab avalanches on south aspects, running on a recent crust layer. One recent natural size 2 cornice failure was also noted.

A couple of avalanche involvements were reported on Monday. We really appreciate this MIN report of a size 1.5 skier triggered storm slab on a northeast aspect around treeline. Thankfully no one was injured. 

We regret to report a fatality on Eureka Peak, east of Williams Lake on March 29. A human-triggered cornice failure resulted in a size 2.5 slab avalanche. It is important to remember to stay well back from ridgetops that might be corniced and to avoid slopes with overhead cornice exposure especially under the current conditions where recent rapid growth has made them large and fragile.

Snowpack Summary

5-20 cm of new snow arrives overnight with moderate to strong southwest wind. This has likely added to wind affected surfaces and cornices in the alpine and to settled dry snow on sheltered, shaded aspects above about 1900 m. Below this elevation and on solar aspects the new snow dusts crusty surfaces down to 1500 m. Below this elevation, the moist snowpack is quickly diminishing.

Recent warm weather is expected to have helped old persistent weak layers heal, including a few crusts buried over the last month as well as a facet layer 150 cm deep from the mid-February cold snap.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
  • Extra caution is needed around cornices under the current conditions.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.