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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2012–Feb 6th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will remain imbedded over the region for the forecast period. Winds will be mostly light and southwesterly with daytime alpine temperatures remaining below freezing.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity tapered-off dramatically in the wake of Friday's natural cycle. Over the weekend activity was mostly on solar aspects at higher elevations to size 2.5. One exception to that was a size 3 skier-triggered slab avalanche (see incident report database) near Kaslo that failed to ground on depth hoar. It was on a northwest aspect at 2500m. I expect a decrease in avalanche activity with forecast cooling on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

January was a snowy month in the South Columbia region and average snowpack depths at 1700m are now between 2 and 3m. For the most part, the storm snow is well settled on shaded aspects and riders are gaining increased confidence on steeper terrain. A generally dormant weakness at the bottom of the mid-pack is a surface hoar layer that formed in mid-December. Towards the south end of the region there has also been talk of isolated basal facets. On Friday a significant avalanche cycle took place waking up a number of recent storm layers as well as deeply buried weaknesses as sun exposed slopes and cornices became moist and weak. Reactivity of deeper layers was not limited to south aspects as some deep failures were observed on north aspects without cornice fall as a trigger. Widespread strengthening and crust recovery should occur with forecast cooling for Monday. If you're heading into the mountains, it's a good time to take stock of evolving layers (crusts, surface hoar) that may be an issue when it finally snows again.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.