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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2022–Mar 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Use extra caution on sunny slopes, and continually assess the snowpack for signs of instability as you change elevation and aspect. Avalanche activity is tapering off after a stormy period, but the snowpack still needs time to adjust to the rapid changes in the last week.

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

General cooling and clearing trend with cold northern air providing good refreezes overnight, but upslope flow will continue to bring spotty cloud cover and bits of snowfall through the forecast period.

Saturday Night: Scattered clouds. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light east ridgetop wind, trending to northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. Treeline low around -8 °C.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light east ridgetop wind, trending to moderate north at higher elevations. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1400 m through the day. Treeline high around -5 °C.

Monday: Partly cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light west ridgetop wind, trending to strong northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1500 m through the day. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected overnight, and a possible trace through the day. Freezing level stays at valley bottom. Alpine temperatures around -15 °C.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, near Fernie, avalanche control with explosives triggered several storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on northeast aspects in the alpine, and a few loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 around treeline. 

On Friday, near Fernie, numerous natural, rider, and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported. Also, Numerous loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported in steep terrain on all aspects below tree line.

On Thursday, there were reports of many small Loose Wet avalanches in steep terrain below tree line across the region.

 

Snowpack Summary

20-35 cm of new snow fell with light winds overnight on Thursday and into Friday morning. A melt freeze crust may be present underneath this new snow, on all aspects, and reported as high as 2100 m. Snow has generally been rain-soaked below 1600 m. Expect to find moist snow underneath the melt-freeze crust, especially at lower elevations.

50-100 cm of recent storm snow is settling on a variety of old surfaces buried in late February: sun crusts, freezing rain crusts, old wind-pressed snow or cold, weak snow crystals on shaded aspects.

Smaller avalanches may step down to old, persistent layers such as the surface hoar layer buried at the end of January. The distribution of this layer is spotty in nature but has produced avalanches and concerning snowpack test results in the past week, mostly in the Flathead. While it does not appear to be as widespread or reactive in the Lizard Range, it has been found in some locations. 

The lower snowpack is generally well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early December found near the ground. It is currently considered dormant but could become active later this season. 

Terrain and Travel

  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avoid rock outcroppings, convexities, and anywhere the snowpack is thin and/or variable.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.