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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2022–Mar 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Storm slabs have been sensitive to human triggering the last few days, especially on unsupported rolls at all elevations.

Time and cooler weather will help promote the bonding of this new snow load.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy, isolated flurries, and freezing levels hovering between 800-1400m the next few days.

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alp high -9*C, FZL 800m, mod-gusting strong SW winds

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, trace, Alp high -8*C, FZL 1300m, light/mod SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 7cm, Alp high -6*C, FZL 1400m, mod SW winds

Snowpack Summary

~55cm of storm snow has buried the March 11 crust (up to 1500m on all aspects, up to treeline on solar aspects). The March 7 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~65cm, the Feb 26 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~80cm, and the Feb 15 surface hoar is down 100-140cm and decomposing. Mild temps are promoting low elevation storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery avalanche control in the highway corridor produced numerous avalanches, average sz 3, up to sz 3.5-4. Many results reached mid to end of fans in valley bottom.

On Monday, a Parks field team, along with several guided and recreational parties, reported easy triggering of the storm slab at all elevations on unsupported rolls.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.