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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2022–Mar 25th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wet loose avalanches are the biggest concern right now. They are most likely on steep slopes that are baking in the sun. They are less likely if you are finding a thick, supportive surface crust. Pay attention to changing conditions through the day.

Confidence

Moderate - The snowpack structure is generally well understood. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. No new rain/snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. 

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new rain/snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level around rising to around 2000 m through the day.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. No new rain/snow expected. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 750 m overnight, rising to 2300 m through the day.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Drizzle of rain. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2700 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Small wet loose avalanches continue to occur on south-facing aspects from solar radiation and daytime warming (up to size 2). On Thursday, a few wet slab avalanches were reported in the alpine. 

Remember that a lack of reported avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions updates, or even just good vibes to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

A skiff of new snow and possibly thin windslabs in high elevation terrain. Refrozen crust on all aspects up to 2000 m, softening in the afternoon at low elevations, and on steep, sunny slopes. Recent warm temperatures, sun, and rain have made the top 10-15 cm of the snowpack moist. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Start on smaller terrain features and gather information before committing to bigger terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • Avoid lee and cross loaded slopes in the alpine.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.