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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2022–Jan 11th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Caution is strongly advised while the snowpack adjusts to the changing temperatures.

Road and avalanche control closures imminent with forecasted new snow, Wednesday through Friday.

Check AB 511 for up to date info.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Flurries, 8 cm. Temp: High -6 °C. SW: 20-40 km/h.

Wednesday: Snow, heavy at times. Accumulation: 29 cm Temp: Low -6 °C, High -2 °C. SW: 20-40 km/h. FZL: 1900 m

Thursday: Flurries. Accumulation: 11 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -2 °C. Ridge wind west: 15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Freezing level: 1800 m

Snowpack Summary

Significant changes happening in the forecast region. New input of snow, wind or sun are having a dramatic effect to the hazard depending on asp, elevation and geographic location. Surface instabilites, like new snow, wind-pressed, transported or temp related will trigger and entrain facets, likely other deep instabilities. Strong caution advised. 

Avalanche Summary

Forecasting teams observing numerous natural events, up to sz 2 in both the Maligne range and Icefields Parkway.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.