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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2022–Jan 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Various hazards are present out there; from hard wind slabs to thin breakable crust. Adapt your trip and your objective to remain safe all weekend.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries, moderate southwesterly wind, treeline temperatures around -3 C, freezing level around 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, up to 5 cm new snow, moderate to strong southwesterly wind, treeline high around -3 C, freezing level around 1600 m.

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, moderate westerly wind increasing to extreme, treeline high around -6 C,freezing level at valley bottom rising to 1000 by midday.

MONDAY: Cloudy, no precipitation, treeline high around -3 C, strong southwesterly wind, freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Three very large avalanches were reported from this region on Thursday. The avalanches appear to have failed on the early December crust and showed wide propagation. They occurred on southwest to southeast aspects and were naturally triggered in response to rising temperatures and solar radiation.

These avalanches follow a previous sporadic pattern of very large avalanches that have been reported from this region and neighbouring regions over the last couple of weeks. 

Snowpack Summary

A breakable crust is now capping the 15 cm of recent snow which is settling fast and has become moist due to past warm temperatures. This crust seems thinner on north and east slopes but observed up to 1800 m. This snow sits on a variety of old surfaces, including soft snow in sheltered areas and wind slabs in exposed and open areas which formed over the past few days.

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now down 100-270 cm. This layer appeared to have "waken up" in response to warm temperatures and solar radiation on Thursday Jan 13, when at least three very large avalanches were reported on this layer. This layer has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.