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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Watch for wet and heavy snow on steep terrain features. 

Wet loose avalanches are still possible while freezing levels remain high

Confidence

High - The snowpack structure is mostly striaghtforward and not unusually variable.

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels continue to change rapidly in the wake of the storm, reaching peak elevations on Friday and likely again on Sunday.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated flurries overnight. Freezing levels rise to 2500 m. Moderate winds from the southwest. 

FRIDAY: Increasing cloud. Freezing levels slowly fall from 2500 m to 1500 m over the afternoon with isolated flurries. Strong southwest winds.  

SATURDAY: Freezing levels remain between 1000 - 1500 m for the day, with a mix of sun and cloud and isolated flurries. Moderate westerly winds. 

SUNDAY: Freezing levels begin to rise overnight, reaching 2500 m by the afternoon. Isolated flurries are possible, with mostly cloudy skies. 

Avalanche Summary

We have limited observations on the results of this storm. A natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred at all elevations with the heavy rain with rising temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow at all elevations. As temperatures cool the wet snow will likely form a thick surface crust. 

A series of crusts from recent rain and warmer temperatures are present up to 1400 m in the upper snowpack. These may be breaking down due to the recent rainfall. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.