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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2022–Feb 11th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Uncertainty remains around a buried weak layer in the upper snowpack. 

This is a good time to make conservative terrain choices, particularly when warm temperatures and solar radiation are testing the snowpack.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A building ridge of high pressure will usher in clear skies and warm temperatures. 

Thursday overnight: Clearing. Ridge winds 40-70 km/h from the northwest. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Friday: Mainly clear. Ridge winds 20-60 km/h from the west. Freezing level rising to 1000 m in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mainly clear. Ridge winds 20-50 km/h from the west. Freezing level rising to 1600 m in the afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly cloudy. Ridge winds light from the west. Trace precipitation. Freezing level rising to 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, skiers triggered small slabs on the buried weak layer with surface hoar. One was triggered from a distance away.

On Monday, wet loose avalanches below 1000 m were observed. Observations were limited due to visibility.

On Sunday, two natural large avalanches of size 2-2.5 were observed in steep terrain on north and east aspects in the alpine. Several large avalanches released on sun exposed steep slopes. Riders triggered a large size 3 avalanche in the south of the region.

Snowpack Summary

Overnight, clear skies and cooling temperatures will refreeze the surface of the snowpack at lower elevations where it has been affected by rain and warm temperatures. Strong northwest winds have created extensive wind-effect at all elevations. Expect to find old and new wind slabs on a variety of aspects, with the most recent and reactive slabs formed in terrain features lee to the northwest. 

A weak layer of surface hoar exists 60 to 100 cm deep in the snowpack, which is a prime depth for human triggering. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features to treat as suspect include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. On south aspects, a melt-freeze crust may exist instead of surface hoar.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.