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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2022–Jan 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Storm is here! All avalanche terrain becomes suspect when there is a storm snow problem. Wait for snow to settle and stabilize before going in the backcountry. 

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

A storm impacting the region offers a nice refresh of cold snow accompanied by strong wind largely out of the south. For the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the BC interior, which will generate strong outflow winds and residual flurries.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow 15-20 cm / Freezing level at valley bottom / Moderate southwesterly wind gusting at 50 km/h / Low of -10

FRIDAY: Snow 15-20 cm / Freezing level at valley bottom / Moderate southwest wind gusting at 50 km/h/ High of -10

SATURDAY: Flurries up to 5 cm with another 5-10 cm overnight / Freezing level at valley bottom / Moderate west wind / High of -12

SUNDAY: Cloudy / Freezing level around 500 m/ Moderate west wind / High of -5

Avalanche Summary

Evidence from last weekend's storm was observed again Wednesday, with large avalanches (up to size 2) triggered naturally on alpine feature and small (size 1) loose dry avalanches triggered by riders in steep sheltered terrain. While most of them were reported within the storm snow, few avalanches were released on December crust / facets and produced very large avalanche (size 2,5). 

Although this layer has seen more activity in the south and east region (details and photos here) it remains a serious concern for the South Columbias region, particularly as the current storm is rolling in.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10-15 cm of low-density snow fell during Thursday as the storm has started to impact the region. This new snow is falling on a variety of surfaces: thin sun crust on solar aspects, isolated surface hoar at treeline on sheltered slopes, or fresh wind slabs in lee alpine features at treeline and above. The last storm also brought low-density snow (20-50 cm), accompanied by variable southerly winds.

We're actively monitoring the early December crust. In some places, it's scoured and on the surface, while in wind-loaded terrain features it can be found as deep as 150 cm below the surface. It consists of faceted grains above a bulletproof crust formed by the Atmospheric Rivers of early December. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be very large. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Be aware of the potential for human triggerable storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.