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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2022–Feb 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

If you want to start an avalanche Tuesday, the 40-50cm soft slab atop the Jan 29th surface hoar/suncrust is certainly ripe for human triggering.

Supported, conservative lines are the way forward until this persistent weak layer strengthens.

Weather Forecast

Cold air from the Arctic will invade briefly, with more snow for the weekend.

Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -22*C, light E winds

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -16*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, 4cm, Alp high -8*C, light SW winds

Fri: Snow, 15cm, Alp high -7*C, mod/gusting strong SW winds

Snowpack Summary

40-50cm from Sunday buried the Jan 29 surface hoar (SH) (5-15mm) and crusts on steep solar aspects. Winds at the tail-end of the storm have created slabs, deeper in lee areas at Alpine and Treeline elevations. The Jan 20 SH (2-4mm) is down 60-70cm, the Jan 11 SH is down ~1m. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5 - 2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity, at all elevations, was seen in the upper 40-50cm, with widespread soft storm slabs failing on unsupported slopes over 35*. If an untouched tree run hasn't avalanched yet, tread lightly. Trees aren't their usual safe haven right now.

A crew in the Abbott were able to easily ski control sz 1-1.5 soft slab avalanches on convexities.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.