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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2022–Feb 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Rockies.

Stormy conditions will rapidly increase avalanche danger, with a natural cycle expected over the coming days. Danger may be a step less for the far east of the region, but use extra caution if you find more than 15 cm of new snow.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm with local enhancements possible, 60 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm with local enhancements possible, 60 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C.

SATURDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 60 to 80 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1200 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 60 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Many small wind slabs were triggered naturally and by riders on Wednesday.

Natural and rider-triggered avalanche activity is expected to spike during Friday and into the weekend. Large avalanches are expected in areas where the buried surface hoar described in the Snowpack Summary exists. Avoidance of avalanche terrain is your best bet for having a safe day.

Snowpack Summary

Upwards of 40 cm of storm snow is forecast to accumulate by the end of Friday, rapidly forming storm slabs in most areas and wind slabs in lee terrain features from strong wind. These slabs will be particularly touchy where they sit on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. We've received indication that the surface hoar is likely most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded. The base of the snowpack is expected to be weak and faceted in shallow, rocky slopes east of the divide.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.