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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 25th, 2020–Feb 26th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Snow and strong wind are forecast. Once enough snow accumulates and forms slab properties over a buried surface hoar layer, slab avalanches will be easy to trigger by humans. Local assessment of the bond of the snow along with conservative decision-making are recommended tactics.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

WEDNESDAY: Morning snowfall then a mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level rising to 1000 m.

THURSDAY: Morning snowfall then a mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level rising to 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Morning snowfall then a mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a few small wind slab avalanches were reactive to human activity. They were on northerly aspects, 15 to 20 cm deep, and at treeline and alpine elevations. Otherwise, loose snow was reactive in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 to 40 cm of snow overlies a widespread layer of surface hoar that was reported to be between 5 and 15 mm in size. This layer exists on all aspects and elevations except for steep, sun-exposed aspects where it was melted by sun and formed a melt-freeze crust. Surface hoar sitting on a thin sun crust may exist on lower angle solar aspects, which is a particularly nasty combination. The new snow will likely become increasingly reactive to human triggers as it stacks up and settles into a cohesive slab.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Stick to simple terrain or small features with limited consequence.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.