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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2023–Jan 6th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch, Sky Pilot.

Continue to avoid high consequence terrain. The new snow load is stressing deeper instabilities, with potential for large, consequential avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday one size 1.5 ski cut was reported. It was a wind slab over the late December crust on a east aspect.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme southerly winds will continue to scour south facing slopes. Thin wind slabs could be found a short ways into lee slopes but most snow will be sublimated or blown way by the intense winds. Moist snow will likely be observed at lower elevations.

In Sheltered terrain at treeline, a new layer of surface hoar is on or near the surface. A thick crust formed in late December is down 20 to 50cm. at lower elevations this crust is up to 15cm thick, in the alpine it is thin and breakable.

Near the base of the snowpack, a weak facet/crust layer from mid November can be found and is still a concern. In general the snowpack is weak, faceted and shallow.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Stormy with 5 to 15cm of new snow expected. Strong to extreme south winds. Freezing level falling to 1200m by early morning.

Friday

Cloudy with up to 5cm of new snow expected. Strong southerly winds. Freezing level rising to 1500m.

Saturday

Cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Moderate southerly winds and freezing levels around 1500m.

Sunday

Cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Strong southerly winds and freezing levels around 1500m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.