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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 12th, 2022–Dec 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Warm, clear weather will make travel conditions favourable for the next few days but keep in mind that the early season snowpack is shallow and deeper layers should be investigated before committing to large terrain features.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported over the weekend though evidence of a small natural avalanche cycle was reported through the most recent storm.

Whumpfing was reported from the Mt. Washington area on Sunday in recent Mountain Information Network reports.

Keep sharing your observations by submitting a MIN report! They are especially helpful in the early season when snowpack information can be limited.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60cm of new snow arrived with strong southerly winds between last Thursday and Sunday afternoon. With the current trend of generally mild and calm weather, the upper snowpack will continue to settle and stabilize.

Higher elevation snowpack depths range from 100-140cm. A layer exists in the lower snowpack that is comprised of a crust and weak, sugary facet crystals. Avalanche professionals in the area reported moderate Sudden Planar snowpack tests and whumpfing on this layer over the weekend. This could be something to investigate further before committing to larger pieces of terrain.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mostly clear. Temperature -4˚C. Winds from the north at 20km/h.

Tuesday

Partly cloudy. A low of -4˚C and a high of +1˚C with an inversion in the alpine. Winds from the north at 10km/h

Wednesday

Mainly clear. A low of -4˚C and a high of +2˚C in a warm alpine inversion. Winds from the north at 20km/h

Thursday

Mainly clear. A low of -4˚C and a high of +2˚C in a warm alpine inversion. Winds from the north at 15km/h

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.