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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2022–Dec 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

While the lack of fresh snow may tempt some to explore into more exposed terrain, it is important to stay conservative in your ski line choices. The persistent weak layer is becoming more unstable with faceting snow below. Be especially cautious in areas where upper snowpack forms a more cohesive slab.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday's road patrol on the Icefields Parkway observed a natural size 1.5 avalanche in the alpine. This avalanche is estimated to have occurred a few days ago running on the persistent weak layer. Explosive control at Marmot ski resort at tree line and alpine has been producing small results mostly running within new snow and occasionally scrubbing to the persistent weak layer in the last few days.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of recent snow overlies previous wind slab in the alpine. At tree line and below a surface hoar layer can be found down 25-35cm in sheltered areas and generally rests on facetted snow to ground. The snowpack ranges from 40-100cm deep and can be unsupportive in locations.

Weather Summary

The weather pattern is expected to be quite stable over the next three days. Expect a mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation and alpine temperatures hovering between -10 °C and -5 °C. Ridge winds will be light to moderate out of northwest.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • If it's deep enough to ride, it's deep enough to slide (avalanche).
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.