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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2023–Jan 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, Clearwater, McBride, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Avoid rocky or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to thin. This is where both wind slabs and buried weak layers can most likely triggered.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported on the persistent weak layers in the region. However, spooky snowpack test results continue to support a conservative approach to terrain.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface will likely become moist at lower elevations as the freezing level rises.

exposed terrain at upper treeline and alpine is wind effected. A new crust can be found at or near the surface below 1800m and on some steep south facing slopes above 1800m. A new surface hoar layer can be found down 5 to 15 on sheltered treeline features.

The two layers of greatest concern are a layer of facets, crust and surface hoar that was buried around Christmas and found around 30 to 60 cm deep. The other is a layer of large, weak facets buried in November and found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets. These layers may persist for a prolonged period of time, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

Snowpack depths are roughly 100 to 175 cm at treeline. In general the snowpack is weak and shallow.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southerly winds and a low of -9 at 1800m.

Thursday

Cloudy with up to 5cm of new snow expected during the day and another 5cm in the evening. The northern part of the forecast region may only see trace amounts of new snow. Moderate to strong southerly winds and a high of -3 at 1800m. Freezing level rising to 1300m.

Friday

Stormy with up to 5cm of new snow expected at treeline and above. Rain at lower elevations. Freezing levels rising to 1900m. Moderate to strong southerly winds.

Saturday

Cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Light to moderate southerly winds. Freezing level around 1600m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.