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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Grohman, Clemina, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Shuswap, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Continue to make conservative terrain choices and consider the consequences of a chosen slope avalanching. There is variability in the snowpack throughout the region but what is consistent is that the snowpack is shallower and weaker than average.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We continue to recieve reports of Friday's natural cycle. Avalanches ran on all aspects and elevations. Most of the activity was on the 2 Surface hoar layers from January but there was also activity on the November facets near the bottom of the snowpack. Avalanches ranged in size from 1.5 to 3.5.

In addition to the natural avalanches there was also several skier remotes, accidentals and ski cuts. These avalanches were generally up to size 2 and were triggered on one of the 2 surface hoar layers buried in January.

Snowpack Summary

A recent layer of surface hoar and a crust on south facing slopes can be found under 20 to 60cm of new dense storm snow at treeline and above. Wind slabs exist on North, west and east facing terrain at treeline and above. As the freezing level falls a new crust will form below 1800m.

There are 4 additional weak layers in the snowpack. The most reactive in recent days have been the layer mentioned above and another surface hoar layer from early January. The bottom of the snowpack is made up of large facets buried in late November, This layer remains a concern. In General this years snowpack is complicated, weak and shallow. Keep this in mind as you move through the mountains.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southerly winds and a Low of -4 at 1800m.

Monday

Cloudy with flurries bringing up to 5cm of new snow. Light southerly winds and freezing levels rising to 1500m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southwest winds and a high of -4 at 1800m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy withlight flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southwest winds and a high of -4 at 1800m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.