The weather forecast says that you better put your sun screen on for Saturday! The snow pack doesn't have sun screen, so it might start peeling off if the sun gets too hot or alpine temperatures get too warm.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
Overnight and Saturday: Light Northwest winds and thin high cloud overnight with freezing down to the valleys. Light West winds with mostly clear skies with a chance of valley cloud and the freezing level rising up to about 2000 metres. A chance of an above freezing layer in the alpine during the afternoon; chance increases as you move to the South.Sunday:Freezing levels dropping and alpine temperatures moving down to about -3.0 as the cloud cover thickens in advance of the next pulse of moisture coming from the coast.Monday: West winds building during the day with light flurries becoming moderate snow by evening.
Avalanche Summary
The cycle of small natural and skier controlled avalanches continues to result in avalanches up to size 1.5 that are about 30-40 cms deep. Expect this cycle to continue with warming trend.
Snowpack Summary
The recent storm snow has been reported to be settling into a cohesive slab above the old surfaces that were buried on January 23rd. This storm slab may become reactive due to the forecast warm temperatures and strong solar radiation. Some wind slabs that have developed on Southerly exposed terrain during the recent Northwest winds may also become more reactive and fall off naturally during this forecast warm spell. Cornices that have not been exposed to any warming may not be well anchored due to recent shifting wind directions. The storm slab is about 50 cms deep in most places and is sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar and facets at treeline and below, and in some places on an old sun crust in the alpine. Some areas in the West Monashees have a layer of heavier moist snow near the surface that may be sitting on a variable freezing rain crust that is down about 20 cms.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.