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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2023–Nov 27th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Stewart, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

A weak layer of snow near the bottom of the snowpack means there is the potential for large natural and human triggered avalanches.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Reports of avalanche activity have tapered since the storm but 1 large (size 2.5) natural avalanche in the alpine on a northwest facing slope was reported in the last 24 hours.

Observations are very limited at this time of year. If you do head out, do so with a cautious and investigative mindset, and consider submitting a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and rain at lower elevations have made for moist and heavy snowpack, at higher elevations there is a surface crust above dry snow.

Observations are limited, but above 1500 m a problematic crust/facet combination exists near the base of the snowpack in the Bear Pass and Ningunsaw area (likely elsewhere too). With total snowpack depths around 150 cm at 1000m, this layer is a concern for human triggering, particularly in shallow or variable depth snowpack areas in the alpine.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Cloudy with snow, 5 to 10 cm accumulation, southwest alpine wind 30 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature -2°C.

Monday

Cloudy with snow, up to 5cm accumulation, southwest alpine wind 50 to 70 km/h, treeline temperature -1°C.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and clouds with light flurries, west to northwest alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -6°C.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and clouds with no precipitation, southeast to east alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -12°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.