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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2025–Dec 24th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Continually assess conditions throughout the day and watch for building wind slabs.

If triggered, wind slabs could step down to deeper layers resulting in very large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to the extreme variability of wind effect on the snowpack.
  • Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Large, naturally triggered persistent slab avalanches have been observed recently on north facing slopes. These failed on buried weak layers 1-2 m deep, and some have stepped down to ground. See photos below.

Check out this MIN from our field team.

Snowpack Summary

Around 15 cm of new snow accompanied by strong southerly wind is expected by Wednesday afternoon. This falls over 50 to 80 cm of wind affected, settling snow that is generally bonding well to the mid December crust.

A prominent crust with 10 cm of facets above is buried 120 to 180 cm deep in terrain above 1800 m. At lower elevations, the mid and lower snowpack is moist to the ground.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with 4 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with 4 to 10 cm of snow. 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 500 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with 3 to 10 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and rollovers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.