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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2026–Feb 17th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Another 10-15cm of snow in the forecast steadily loads up two persistent weak layers in the upper snowpack.

The lure of untouched powder is powerful, but these weak layers are being stressed by human passage and releasing in larger and larger slabs.

The possibility of human triggering is real, especially in zones less travelled.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Today, a field team remote triggered a sz 2 slab, 60-70cm deep, into Bostock Creek from 10m away. The debris snapped a couple small trees near its toe.

Several MIN reports from yesterday (Perley Rock, Ross Pillows, Cheops N Bowl, etc) spoke of natural and human triggered slabs in the upper 40-80cm of the snowpack, with a couple folks caught but uninjured in the debris.

On Saturday the Frequent flyer path ran sz 2.5 into the creek, stepping down to the Jan 26th layer on the fan.

Snowpack Summary

50-60cm of snow fell the past week and was redistributed by gusty winds in the Alpine and Treeline.

Recent Spring-like temps and sunshine have formed several crusts in the upper snowpack, along with a sneaky Feb 9 surface hoar layer down 30-40cm.

The Jan 26th layer, composed of surface hoar/facets/crust, is buried down 60-80cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Below this the snowpack is well settled/strong.

Weather Summary

Flurries followed by dropping temps later in the week.

Tonight: Flurries, 5cm. Alp low -8°C. Winds SE 15-30km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 800m.

Tue: Flurries, 5cm. Alp High -7°C. Wind NW 10-25km/h. FZL 1000m.

Wed: Sun & cloud, isolated flurries. High -12 °C. Winds W 15km/h. FZL 500m.

Thurs: Cloudy, isolated flurries. High -12°C. Winds Light winds. FZL 600m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.